Wild Horses Didn't Drag Me Away!

Note: This post was composed on Thursday evening before the market's swoon today, Friday, October 10th. I decided not to update or edit, the views expressed in this blog are always delivered for cogitation longer-term, not as short-term advice. Good luck!

Picking up after a long break, we point to our last post where we cautioned against assuming doom-and-gloom as the first phase of the Trump tariffs debacle began to play out. The April-crash recovery was powerful; against all headwinds, here we are only 6 months later, the DJIA up 20% from its early April low, amid blistering gains in various risk-on products. But, there is always a but, YTD gains are paltry, gold prices (and crypto) have zoomed on currency debasement fears, and the 10-year refuses to drop below 4% even after a long-awaited rate cut.

And whether you think TACO is real or not, the global tariff scenario appears murky at best in the new up-ended global economic order. Is this wild ride over, is that what all this is telling us? For family investors, trying to build and protect long-term portfolios, our message remains, boringly so, the same...we don't know, so just stick to your own TrueNorth allocation. Sure, go ahead and make some incremental changes here and there. But do you really want to bet that gold will crater in the next 90-120 days? Or that AI-mania and Quantum-fever will continue forever? I don't, even though we will certainly ride wild horses another day!

Take a look at the YTD efficient-frontier chart below, generated by FinDosh for a real-life OmniFolio. The only thing we don't like is the penultimate-right 1.2% dot (below the line), since the 20% allocation to US treasuries punches below its weight (excuse the pun!). But shudn't the overperforming 2.7% dot (US LargeCap Growth) raise its own red-flag?

  From left to right: UTL, ALT, IDM, MSC, RTS, GHY, LCG, UST, LCV

Till next time....

Note: This blog is for information purposes only for FinDosh clients. It does not constitute investment advice or financial planning services.